Splash Singapore: Pacific Basin’s Martin Fruergaard maps dry bulk’s three-way challenge

“The real challenge for our industry is navigating a world that is simultaneously more uncertain, more regulated and more technologically advanced.”

That is the central issue Martin Fruergaard, chief executive of Pacific Basin Shipping, expects to confront when he takes the stage for the Dry Bulk Market Outlook session at the inaugural Splash Singapore conference on September 24 at the Fairmont Hotel.

Fruergaard sees three subjects dominating the debate: vessel supply, China and geopolitics.

On the supply side, he points to the discipline shown by dry bulk owners, particularly in the geared segments where Pacific Basin is one of the market’s best-known operators.

“Dry bulk vessel ordering, especially for geared vessels, has remained remarkably disciplined despite attractive shipyard economics in other sectors,” he says.

Fleet growth remains modest and the orderbook is relatively low by historical standards. Owners, however, face a more complicated investment decision than in previous cycles. Questions remain over emissions regulations, future fuels, and which technologies will prove commercially viable, while shipyards are increasing capacity and improving productivity.

“The key question is whether owners continue to show restraint or whether higher ordering returns as confidence improves,” Fruergaard says.

China forms the second major strand of the discussion. Its economy is changing and facing well-documented challenges, but the country remains the world’s largest importer of many of the commodities that underpin dry bulk demand.

Fruergaard expects attention to focus on how China’s evolving growth model changes commodity consumption and trade patterns. At the same time, India and Southeast Asia are becoming increasingly important sources of incremental demand.

Geopolitics completes the trio.

Trade flows are becoming less predictable as sanctions, conflicts, tariffs and wider supply-chain shifts alter where cargoes originate, where they are consumed and how far ships must travel.

“Whether it is tensions in the Middle East, changing trade policies, sanctions or broader shifts in global supply chains, geopolitics continues to influence tonne-mile demand and freight market volatility,” he says.

Technology is adding another layer of change, although Fruergaard does not expect one dramatic breakthrough to transform shipping over the next 12 months.

Instead, he sees the greatest near-term impact coming from the practical application of tools already available, particularly data, digitalisation and artificial intelligence.

Shipping produces enormous amounts of commercial and operational data. AI is increasingly helping companies improve voyage planning, fuel consumption, maintenance, safety reporting and commercial decisions.

“The key challenge is not access to technology but integrating it effectively into day-to-day operations and decision-making,” Fruergaard says.

He also expects further advances in vessel performance monitoring and emissions management as regulatory pressure and customer demands increase. Owners are investing in systems that can reduce fuel use while providing more transparent evidence of environmental performance.

Fruergaard rejects the idea that technology’s main purpose is to remove people from shipping.

“The industry sometimes talks about technology as if it will replace people,” he says. “In reality, the best outcomes tend to come when technology enhances the capabilities of experienced seafarers and shore-based teams rather than replacing them.”

Singapore is well placed to shape that transition. Fruergaard argues that the city-state has developed from a maritime hub into an important centre for leadership, innovation and capital.

Its traditional strengths in infrastructure, connectivity and business support are now being supplemented by an increasingly prominent role in decarbonisation, maritime technology, talent development and innovation.

“The city-state has become a place where shipowners, charterers, financiers, technology companies, regulators and service providers can work together to solve common industry challenges,” he says. “That collaborative environment is difficult to replicate elsewhere.”

As the industry grapples with geopolitical uncertainty, new regulations and technological disruption, Singapore’s position as a trusted and neutral maritime centre becomes more valuable, Fruergaard argues.

For him, the value of Splash Singapore lies in exchanging views with people approaching the industry’s opportunities and risks from different directions.

“Events like Splash Singapore provide a useful forum to test assumptions, challenge conventional wisdom and learn from peers,” he says.

A successful conference, he adds, is one where delegates leave with a clearer picture of the industry’s direction and where its greatest risks and opportunities will emerge.

“And I’m sure we will get a few new good ideas from the other conference participants that we will do our best to copy,” he says.

Fruergaard joins G2 Ocean chief executive Arthur English, Norden boss Jan Rindbo, Baltic Exchange chief executive Mark Jackson and Seanergy Maritime chairman and chief executive Stamatis Tsantanis on the dry bulk panel, moderated by Mandarin Shipping chief executive Tim Huxley.

Splash Singapore builds on eight editions of the Maritime CEO Forum Singapore and is organised by the team behind Splash and Geneva Dry. Its format dispenses with presentations, slides and sales pitches in favour of unscripted discussions between shipowners, charterers, shipmanagers and other senior maritime decision-makers. Sessions cover shipping’s biggest strategic issues, tanker and dry bulk markets, chartering, artificial intelligence, digitalisation and the future maritime workforce.

The full Splash Singapore agenda can be accessed here.
Splash Singapore registration, at just S$750, can be accessed here.
Special Splash Singapore hotel room rates can be found here.

source : splash247