Hormuz on the brink as Middle East conflict disrupts global shipping

A dramatic military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran has pushed the Strait of Hormuz into the centre of an active conflict zone, rattling energy markets and placing global shipping on high alert. 

The last 48 hours have seen the Middle East erupt as the United States and Israel began conducting extensive strikes against a wide range of targets in Iran. The strikes have been dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel. Trump has said the aim of the operation is to “ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.”

The US and Israel carried out a joint military operation on 28 February, targeting sites in Iran. Iran has responded with retaliatory military action.

In response, Iran launched retaliatory military strikes targeting several American military bases in the Middle East, including in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Air routes are being altered, and maritime trade through the Red Sea and key Gulf straits face heightened uncertainty. If diversions become prolonged, shipments may increasingly have to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding an estimated 15-20 days to transit time for Europe and the United States,

As a result, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has died aged 86 in a large-scale air attack on the country by the US and Israel. Iran launched counter-attacks throughout the Middle East in retaliation for what its foreign minister called an “unprovoked, illegal” attack by the US and Israel.

In the meantime, shipping has once again faced numerous attacks, endangering seafarers’ lives and disrupting critical trade, as within hours of Saturday’s US-Israeli strikes, Tehran reportedly warned tankers in the strait that no ship would be allowed to pass through.

Within hours, missile exchanges followed across the Gulf, placing one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz, inside an active conflict zone.

Furthermore, the vital waterway faces mounting disruption, with Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, jumping by 10% to touch more than $82 a barrel on 2 March, before easing after various ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend.

Attacks on commercial shipping

On 1 March, four people were injured in an attack on an oil tanker north of Khasab Port in Oman, the country’s Maritime Security Center said. Although early reports stated that the vessel was flying the Palau flag, the Palau Ship Registry (PSR) clarified in a statement that the vessel was removed from the Palau registry in January 2026. The vessel was not registered with the Palau Ship Registry at the time of the reported incident.

The tanker was targeted five nautical miles north of the port in the Musandam Governorate. “All 20 crew members, including 15 Indian nationals and 5 Iranian nationals, were evacuated,” it added.

However, four crew members reportedly sustained injuries of varying severity and were transferred for medical attention.

On the same day, the oil tanker MKD Vyom was struck by a projectile, resulting in the death of one crew member. The incident occurred approximately 44.4 nautical miles northwest of Muscat, Oman. The impact caused a fire in the engine room, which was initially reported as active but was later brought under control.

The tanker was laden at the time and was operating in waters off northern Oman when the attack occurred.

In addition, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that the oil tanker Hercules Star was struck approximately 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr, United Arab Emirates, a location within the approaches to the Strait of Hormuz.

In a separate incident on the same day, another vessel was reportedly targeted approximately 35 nautical miles west of Sharjah, UAE. An unknown projectile was reported to have exploded in close proximity to the vessel and the crew was reported safe.

Moreover, the Ministry of Interior of Bahrain announced that one person was killed and two others were injured as a result of falling debris from a missile that had been intercepted. According to the Ministry, a fire broke out aboard a foreign vessel undergoing maintenance in Salman Industrial City after debris from an intercepted missile fell on it, resulting in the death of an Asian worker and serious injuries to two others.

It added that the fire was brought under control and extinguished.

As a result, major container shipping lines have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope due to heightened maritime security concerns in the region.

Industry leaders urge protection of seafarers and freedom of navigation 

Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Arsenio Dominguez, issued a statement on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international maritime law, and it must be respected by all Parties, with no exception.

I am deeply concerned by reports of at least one fatality and several seafarers injured in attacks on merchant vessels. No attack on innocent seafarers or civilian shipping is ever justified. These crews are simply doing their jobs and must be protected from the effects of wider geopolitical tensions. 

…said Dominguez, calling on all stakeholders to remain vigilant against disinformation and to rely only on verified, authoritative sources when making navigational decisions.

In addition, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), European Shipowners|ESCA and the Asian Shipowners’ Association made a joint statement on situation noting that this is a fast moving and unpredictable situation. 

Our foremost concern is for the wellbeing of the seafarers and civilians affected. We were deeply concerned to learn about the attacks on seafarers and the tragic loss of life. Our thoughts are with the families of those affected. All parties must take all necessary steps to safeguard the safety of seafarers who are simply going about their job and have found themselves, through no fault of their own, in a highly volatile situation. 

…the statement highlights.

World Shipping Council (WSC) President and CEO, Joe Kramek, further commented on the impact of the situation, highlighting how the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East is causing disruption to global liner shipping, with many ocean carriers pausing or rerouting services as they assess the evolving security situation. 

The safety of seafarers is paramount. Seafarers must not be targeted or placed at risk as a result of conflict, and the fundamental principle of freedom of navigation must be respected. Ocean carriers are making operational decisions based on the best available information and their individual risk assessments. Our thoughts are with the seafarers currently in and around the affected region. 

…Kramek commented. 

Nautilus International has called for seafarer protections, expressing its concern by the rapid deterioration in security, as seafarers are once again being placed in the front line of geopolitical conflict over which they have no control.

Seafarers are not expendable, and they must not be treated as collateral damage in regional or international conflicts. The current situation in and around the Strait of Hormuz represents a serious escalation in risk for the men and women working at sea, many of whom are simply trying to do their jobs and return home safely […] 

…Mark Dickinson, General secretary, Nautilus International, underscored. 

Nautilus International reiterates that seafarers must be:

• fully and promptly informed of all known risks before entering high‑risk areas;
• provided unhindered right to repatriation and transit should they decline to enter a warlike operation zone;
• provided enhanced pay if they do enter such zones;
• protected from disciplinary action, loss of pay, or detriment where safety decisions are taken in good faith;
• supported with appropriate security measures, welfare provisions, and access to assistance where voyages are disrupted.

How does shipping assess risks?

As explained by Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, Jakob Larsen, shipowners assess several factors when assessing security risks to their ships. These factors include the intent, capability, and possibility of an enemy to attack, and the vulnerability and impact to the crew, ship, cargo and environment of different kinds of attacks or security events. In response to this initial assessment the shipowner evaluates the available mitigating measures, which include for example considerations on manning, watchkeeping, damage control readiness, the ship’s routing, and liaison with military forces in the conflict area.

The final decision on risk mitigation includes in some cases a decision to stay away completely. This depends on the risk acceptance level of the company and the ship’s crew. The risk acceptance level varies from company to company and is shaped by the company culture.

According to a Diaplous situation report, as of 1 March, the primary maritime risk drivers for up to 72 hours are:

• Coercive maritime behavior, elevated probability: increased hailing, shadowing, aggressive approach maneuvers, temporary holding patterns, and selective interdiction attempts, particularly for vessels with perceived US or Israel affiliation, or those linked to sensitive cargoes and counterparties.
• Navigation safety degradation, elevated probability: congestion, elevated military posture, and potential electronic interference raise the risk of collision, near-miss, and reporting confusion, particularly in chokepoints and high-density traffic lanes.
• Port and offshore operations disruption, elevated probability: force-protection measures and air-defense posture changes can drive short-notice changes in pilotage, anchorage management, crew movements, and service availability, especially given the broadened retaliation footprint listed above.

Tripwires that would rapidly worsen maritime risk:

• Confirmed detention or seizure of a merchant vessel, especially if tied to US or Israel affiliation.
• Credible reporting of mined-water risk, mine-like incidents, or unexplained explosions impacting commercial shipping.
• Sustained retaliatory strike cycles producing casualties in Gulf states, leading to tighter restrictions on maritime and port operations.

As highlighted by Diaplous, the most likely outlook is continued multi-wave operations by the US and Israel, with Iran sustaining retaliatory actions against Israel and US regional assets. This would result in rolling disruptions and a heightened risk of maritime coercion near key chokepoints.

A less likely but high-impact scenario would involve a single maritime incident — such as a vessel detention, a mining scare, or an exchange involving naval units — triggering a rapid escalation in routing behavior, port congestion, and war-risk pricing.

Recommendations:

For vessels operating in or approaching the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Gulf:

• Voyage timing and routing: Defer non-essential Hormuz transits where commercially feasible during peak escalation windows. If transit is unavoidable, maximize sea room from Iranian territorial waters consistent with safe navigation and traffic schemes.
• Reporting and coordination: Maintain continuous reporting with UKMTO and MSCIO when operating in applicable reporting areas. Reduce reporting thresholds for hails, shadowing, and abnormal military craft behavior.
• Bridge readiness: Reinforce visual watch, tighten radar settings for small contacts, maintain disciplined VHF watch, and prepare hailing response scripts and escalation triggers.
• Navigation resilience: Assume intermittent GPS or GNSS disruption is plausible. Cross-check position via radar ranges, visual bearings, and dead reckoning, and log anomalies for validation and incident defense.

For shore teams and operations centers:

• Stand up a short-term Strait of Hormuz escalation watch with defined triggers for delay, diversion, or entry suspension.
• Identify voyages with US or Israel exposure, elevate them to the highest monitoring tier, and align stakeholder communications, insurance engagement, and port-agent coordination.
• Given the broadened retaliation footprint (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Oman), add buffers for Gulf port calls and offshore operations, and confirm pilotage and berth plans 24 hours and 6 hours prior, with a specific focus on disruption risk tied to host-nation force protection.
• source : safety4sea.