Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?

By Usaid Siddiqui

As Iran and the United States work with mediators to end seven months of hostilities, the reality in the Strait of Hormuz is shifting in ways that could prove to be a game-changer in ongoing negotiations.

According to the latest data from tanker-tracker websites, traffic through the key waterway has been steadily increasing, with some estimates putting oil and petroleum flow through the Strait of Hormuz at nearly 80 percent of what it was before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.

This could dent Iran’s leverage in reaching a favourable deal for itself in its attempts to end the fighting, which has seriously hampered its already heavily sanctioned economy, amid the US blockade of Iranian ships and ports.

Despite that, experts believe it would be a mistake to think normality in the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, or that Iran will fold easily despite growing economic hardship.

“The fact that oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz is encouraging, but flows are not yet regarded as completely secure or guaranteed, particularly while the wider conflict remains unresolved,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera.

Moreover, oil prices remain high globally, including in the US, where President Donald Trump faces a crucial midterm election that could see his party swept away in both houses of Congress.

Tanker insurance costs also remain elevated, and energy flows through Hormuz are still far from secure, suggesting Iran’s leverage may be weakening rather than disappearing.

Oil flows through Hormuz recovering

The latest data from commodity analytics firm Kpler points to a significant recovery in oil exports from the Middle East.

Crude exports reached an estimated 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd) in September – their highest level since the war began in late February, the firm reported this week.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself were expected to reach about 9.719 million bpd during the month. Saudi Arabia has driven much of the increase, with its exports rebounding from 2.446 million bpd in August to about 5.4 million bpd in September.

Kpler said Middle East crude exports have recovered to just less than 80 percent of their pre-war level. But the figures remain about 3.2 million bpd below the 19.513 million bpd exported in February.

The data also does not include ships crossing Hormuz with their tracking systems switched off, meaning actual traffic could be higher.

Prior to the war, an estimated 120-140 vessels crossed through the waterway daily, roughly half of them oil tankers moving approximately 20 million barrels per day. At the height of the fighting, traffic through the waterway collapsed to as few as two tankers a day after Iran effectively closed the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks.

Is Iran losing leverage?

The rebound in oil flow presents a challenge for Tehran. Iran has sought to use its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints – as leverage against Washington’s military and economic pressure.

But if large volumes of oil can continue moving through the strait while Iran itself remains under a US naval blockade, Tehran’s bargaining power could diminish.

Iran, however, rejects any assessment that its control over the strait is slipping.

Hossein Mohebbi, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson, said on Wednesday that there is an ongoing “military conflict” in the Hormuz Strait.

“We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond,” Mohebbi said in an interview with the semi-official Fars news agency.

Separately on Wednesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre said unknown projectiles struck three ships in the waterway on Tuesday, including a crude oil tanker.

Oil prices are another indication that Iran has not lost all of its leverage.

Brent crude fell 2.6 percent to $102.59 a barrel on Tuesday as traders focused on recovering Middle East exports. But it was still heading for a roughly 13 percent gain in September.

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Chris Beauchamp, an analyst at IG, said markets were beginning to incorporate evidence of recovering flows but remained wary about how durable that recovery would be.

“It takes time for evidence to filter through to markets,” Beauchamp said. “Oil prices came off yesterday as the narrative began to take hold, and should continue to fall.”

But he said concerns persisted over whether the US protection system could withstand a renewed barrage of Iranian missiles and drones.

Streeter of Wealth Club said the market still had a geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices, despite the improving flows.

“Insurance costs for tankers also remain elevated because of the perceived risks of operating in the region, adding to the cost of transporting crude even as more ships make it through the waterway,” she said.

Moreover, Streeter warned that crude figures tell only part of the story. Flows of refined fuels, particularly diesel and petrol, remain constrained, while damage to infrastructure has placed additional pressure on energy supply chains, she added.

There is another vulnerability, the investment strategist pointed out. Countries including the US have relied heavily on strategic oil reserves to cushion the impact of the disruption and help contain prices.

“With those stockpiles now significantly depleted, there is a thinner buffer if there is another disruption, which is helping to keep a floor under crude prices,” Streeter added.

‘Economic war’ on Iran

There is little doubt that economic pressure on Iran is intensifying, potentially increasing Tehran’s incentive to reach an agreement.

Official data from the Statistical Center of Iran earlier this month showed gross domestic product (GDP) contracting 10.1 percent year on year between March 21 and June 20, while the crucial oil and gas sector shrank 26.4 percent.

Iran has also been battling high inflation and a plunging currency as the US blockade constrains oil exports and foreign currency earnings.

Twelve-month average inflation reached 69.9 percent earlier in September, while the rial had fallen beyond 2.2 million to the US dollar in early September.

In August, the US announced a new economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.

Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that Iran was facing an “economic war” alongside the military conflict.

“There is a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which affects Iran’s revenues from oil exports and other products such as petrochemicals, which are important to Iran’s economy,” Eslami said. “As a result, Iran’s dollar revenues have been affected by the blockade.”

But he cautioned against judging Iran’s economy solely through the value of its currency.

“The exchange rate is a very important indicator, but it is not the only measure for explaining what is happening or the difficulties and challenges facing Iran’s economy,” Eslami said, adding that Iran has faced US economic pressure for “five decades”.

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Negar Mortazavi, political analyst, and the host of The Iran Podcast, echoed Eslami’s opinion that the economic blockade is imposing “enormous pressure on Iran”, but that does not mean it will fold, she told Al Jazeera.

“Tehran has shown that it is prepared to tolerate considerable economic pain rather than negotiate entirely on Washington’s terms.”

The war is hurting the US economy too

Iran is not alone in facing economic pressure. US diesel prices hit a record $6.53 a gallon ($1.73 per litre) this month, more than 70 percent higher than the price before the US waged its war on Iran. The Trump administration is discussing restrictions on diesel exports to ease prices before November’s midterm elections.

Higher energy costs have also fuelled inflation, experts say, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month – its first increase in three years.

Additionally, the cost-of-living crisis in the country is also weighing on Trump politically. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll put his approval at a career-low 32 percent, with just 17 percent approving of his handling of living costs.

From time to time, Iran has seized on this pressure, often mocking Trump for prematurely declaring victory in the war despite the apparent economic downturn in the US.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf this month used a math equation to suggest that Tehran’s ability to disrupt energy supplies is influencing US monetary policy. Analysts say while the claim is exaggerated, it does highlight Iran’s own economic leverage over Washington.

Can a deal be reached?

Despite the military and economic pressure, negotiations have not collapsed.

At the United Nations General Assembly last week, Tehran and Washington engaged in three hours of indirect talks, as US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

President Trump later described the encounter as “very good” and “very productive”.

Iran also proposed a seven-day roadmap under which the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened and normal maritime traffic restored if Washington meets Tehran’s conditions, a plan Trump categorically rejected.

Those conditions included ending the naval blockade on Iran, easing sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds.

However, on Wednesday, the Reuters news agency reported that Araghchi had received US feedback on the proposal through Qatari mediators.

An official briefed on the talks said the main disagreement now centred on the sequencing of measures rather than the components of the plan.

Mortazavi said Iran’s latest proposal shows Tehran is willing to be flexible because it wants to bring the war to an end.

The proposal builds on the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US but offers a much faster timeline, including an immediate end to the war, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within a week and a rapid return to nuclear negotiations.

“Iran is offering compromise in order to stop the war, not capitulation under pressure,” Mortazavi said.

But that flexibility is tied to reciprocal concessions from Washington, she added. “There has to be something in return from the US.”

Mortazavi said there was a “danger” if Trump misreads Iran’s willingness to compromise as weakness. “That could instead prolong the war,” she warned.