Shipping executives see geopolitical turmoil as both threat and opportunity

Geopolitical crises are the shipping industry’s biggest concern, with 76% of industry executives identifying them as the sector’s most serious challenge, Kapa Research reveals.

Yet, despite the disruption caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, 40% say the turmoil could create new opportunities for their own companies, according to the Global Shipping Outlook 2026 by Kapa Research. The findings are based on 314 interviews conducted in May and June 2026 with shipowners and C-suite executives from leading shipping groups worldwide.

The report identifies three major forces shaping the industry: economic globalisation, climate change and rapid technological advances. These trends are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, with the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz placing shipping at the centre of concerns over global trade and energy security.

Despite the uncertainty, the survey points to a relatively resilient outlook among shipping companies. Rather than signalling widespread pessimism, respondents expressed confidence in the industry’s ability to adapt to disruption and in the broader global economy’s capacity to withstand shocks and continue operating.

The findings suggest that while geopolitical instability is viewed as the industry’s most pressing threat, a significant share of shipping executives also see disruption as an opportunity to reposition their businesses and respond to changing trade patterns.

Key findings

• 94% are optimistic about their company’s prospects, and 70% say global shipping is in better shape than five years ago.
• 76% name geopolitical crises as the industry’s most serious problem. Yet 40% say the Hormuz crisis creates new opportunities for their own company.
• Asked whether shipping wants peace or benefits from turmoil, 54% chose peace. 46% did not.
• 76% expect China and India to shape the industry’s future. 17% point to the West.
• 65% already use or pilot AI. Only 7% use it extensively.

Decarbonisation & digitalisation: The twin transition

The emerging maritime world order is being shaped by two major transitions: decarbonisation and digitalisation.

Shipping’s shift towards the IMO’s net-zero emissions target for 2050, along with the industry’s inclusion in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), remains among its most contentious issues.

Behind the immediate concerns over rising operating costs and fuel availability lies a deeper geopolitical divide. Western governments increasingly view shipping as a vehicle for the global green transition, while China is treating the sector as a tool of national power and geoeconomic expansion.

The contrasting approaches, regulation in the West and strategic industrial policy in China, are creating a growing competitive asymmetry across the global maritime sector.

Furthermore, the industry’s digital transition is more advanced and is increasingly moving beyond cost reduction to become a matter of competitiveness and survival.

The traditional measures of shipping strength, fleet size and financial liquidity, are no longer sufficient on their own. Control of data, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity capabilities are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining which companies lead the next phase of the industry.

This is also placing shipping at the centre of a broader technological contest between US technology companies and China.

The human factor

Despite rapid technological change, human expertise remains essential to shipping. The industry is reshaping its recruitment and workforce strategies in an effort to prevent chronic labour shortages from becoming a structural weakness.

Traditional maritime labour markets, including the Philippines, Russia, Ukraine, Greece and India, continue to provide much of the world’s seafaring workforce.

At the same time, the industry could be entering a new demographic phase, with increasing numbers of women joining the seafaring profession.

Geopolitics: From risk to opportunity

Geopolitical instability has become a structural feature of the modern maritime landscape rather than a series of isolated external shocks.

Although escalating geopolitical crises are identified as the industry’s leading challenge, a significant share of shipping executives also view disruption as a potential strategic advantage.

Shipping has historically demonstrated a degree of counter-cyclical resilience, with periods of instability often generating higher freight rates and returns. This may help explain the industry’s unusually strong confidence in its own prospects despite the broader volatility experienced globally over the past five years.

The east takes centre stage

Shipping executives increasingly see the East as the main driver of global maritime activity, challenging the traditional Western dominance associated with the United States and European Union.

Outside the United States, China is widely regarded as the leading Eastern power, supported by its economic and industrial scale, dominant shipbuilding position and competitive merchant fleet. India and the Arab states are also regarded as important regional players.

The findings point to an increasingly complex relationship between the West and China. While Western leadership has contributed to perceptions of its own relative decline, respondents may also be assessing China’s rise primarily through measures such as industrial capacity, economic scale and shipbuilding strength.

This could lead the industry to underestimate the West’s continuing structural and geopolitical influence. Nevertheless, the survey points to a clear psychological shift among shipping leaders towards China in what has become a broader global “battle of impressions”.

The analysis to a striking paradox at the heart of global shipping: the industry views geopolitical instability as its greatest challenge, yet many of its leaders also see turmoil as commercially beneficial.

Nearly half of shipping executives regard geopolitical turmoil as an opportunity for their businesses. The result is an industry that appears increasingly confident in its ability to navigate instability — and, in some cases, profit from it. 

Rather than despair, participants send a message of confidence. That the global economy, and the world with it, can absorb adversity and keep moving forward. This outlook distinguishes shipping as a historic industry, led by a battlehardened and resolute leadership, capable of navigating the unforeseeable. 

…highlighted Alexis Routzounis, CEO, Kapa Research.

source : safety4sea