Windward: Iran is gradually increasing transits daily 

According to Windward, 36% of Hormuz transits seen March 31 were on US-sanctioned vessels, while 27% were Greece-owned bulk carriers shipping agricultural commodities to or from the Islamic Republic, highlighting how the selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is benefiting Iran.

Strait of Hormuz transit and selective denial

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained active on March 31, but access continues to be tightly filtered. 1 tanker, four cargo (2 containerships, 2 general cargo vessels) inbound transits while 1 tanker, 5 cargo (1 containership, 1 general cargo, 3 bulk carrier) exited the Gulf, according to AIS signals.

While daily volumes are 93% down on average levels, tracking shows that Iran is gradually increasing transits daily since imposing its selective blockade on the Strait around March 15 by rerouting ships via Larak Island.

At a glance

• Iran is consolidating its control of the permission-based route through the Strait of Hormuz that allows vessels to transit via Larak Island. The route, a selective blockade,  has been operational since March 15. On March 31, 11 AIS-transmitting vessels crossed the Strait, while additional movements likely occurred under partial or fully dark conditions.
• Six AIS-transmitting vessels exited the Gulf, while five AIS-transmitting vessels entered, bringing the total number of confirmed crossings to 11 on March 31.
• A tanker was struck off Ras Laffan, Qatar, by two Iranian missiles, the second attack in as many days, and the 24th reported event since the war began. 
• Iran is set to deliver its first oil to India in seven years, taking advantage of a US waiver issued to Iranian cargoes on the water two weeks ago.

West of Hormuz oil exports drop 76% in March

March oil loadings at ports West of Hormuz declined 76% in March compared with February. Exports of crude and condensate, clean petroleum products and dirty petroleum products loaded on tankers totalled 5.28m bpd in March, compared with 22.2m bpd the prior month. .

Crude and condensate loadings reached 4.3m bpd in March, compared with 16.6m bpd in February. Clean petroleum products were at 880,000 bpd compared with 4.95m bpd in the prior month.

Of the 142.5m barrels tracked being loaded, 128m barrels remain in transit or floating storage indicating the severity of the closure which has prevented tankers leaving Hormuz to deliver cargoes.

Qatar energy-chartered tanker hit by missile

Panama-flagged  47,917 dwt tanker AQUA 1 (IMO 9573660) was struck by two Iranian cruise missiles about 17 nautical miles north of Ras Laffan, Qatar on April 1. The vessel sustained port-side hull damage above the waterline. All 21 crew members were evacuated safely with no injuries reported. No environmental impact or oil spill was noted.

Qatar’s armed forces detected three Iranian cruise missile launches with two intercepted, and one striking AQUA 1. The vessel was on charter to Qatar Energy. 

One missile caused a fire which has since been extinguished. The other remains unexploded within the vessel’s engine room and is being investigated by the relevant authorities, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.

The UKMTO has logged 24 maritime incidents since February 28 across the Middle East Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman including 16 confirmed attacks, and eight suspicious events. The AQUA 1 attack followed the March 31 drone strike on Kuwaiti VLCC AL SALMI at Dubai Anchorage.

The vessel’s last confirmed port call was Ras Laffan, Qatar between March 8-11.

India buys Iranian oil under US waiver

PING SHUN (IMO 9231901), an OFAC-sanctioned Aframax crude oil tanker flying the false flag of Eswatini is transporting ~600,000 barrels of Iranian crude from Kharg Island, Iran to Vadinar, India—the first Iranian oil delivery to India since May 2019. 

Both tanker & operator (Nycity Shipmanagement Co Ltd, China) are designated under OFAC Executive Order 13902 (Iran sanctions) on February 25, 2025.

The expected receivers are either Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., or Nayara Energy Ltd. 

India-Iran trade was previously at 518,000 bpd (11.5% of India’s crude imports) in 2018

The voyage was enabled by U.S. General License U (issued March 20, 2026), authorizing delivery of Iranian crude loaded before the March 20 cutoff. 

GL U does not override vessel-specific sanctions—nor does it delist the sanctioned vessel or authorize transactions with the sanctioned operator. This creates significant legal complexity for Indian refiners (IOC, BPCL, Nayara Energy) receiving the cargo at Vadinar port.

Iran war reshapes Russia oil shipments

Analysis of tankers calling at Russia (excluding Kazakh and CPC grades) from March 1-25 showed 67% of crude was shipped on tankers sanctioned by the US, EU or UK.

“Other or unsanctioned dark fleet tankers” comprised 21% of crude shipped and Greece-owned ships 12%, one of the lowest levels ever. 

Globally assessed crude, diesel prices and fuel oil prices  exceeded G7 Oil Price Cap early in March.  Many of the world’s largest export refineries are in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE, with the shortage in middle distillates hiking global prices.

Complicating enforcement for the EU and UK was the U.S. decision to issue a sanctions waiver of all Russian cargoes on the water as of March 12. EU and UK marine service providers cannot benefit from the US sanctions waiver, which diverges from their existing sanctions regime which remains unchanged.

Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for a fifth week, as Iran entrenches a selective, permission-based transit regime rather than pursuing full closure. Limited increases in crossings suggest a calibrated strategy to maintain market leverage while allowing controlled flows. At the same time, policy distortions, including US waivers, are reshaping trade flows and benefiting sanctioned and dark fleet operators.

source : safety4sea