India’s steel and infrastructure boom fuels dry bulk outlook

According to Intermodal’s latest market report, India’s sustained economic expansion, driven by robust domestic demand, infrastructure investment, and rising steel and raw material needs, is reinforcing its growing role in global seaborne commodity trade.

As explained, in a global environment defined by geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, India continues to demonstrate resilient growth potential. Although the OECD has estimated a slowdown in India’s GDP growth from 7.6% in FY 2025-2026 to 6.1% in FY 2026-2027, reflecting challenges such as energy supply disruptions, currency depreciation, and inflation, India is still projected to record the highest growth among G20 economies.

Industrial and infrastructure momentum

India’s growth is underpinned by domestic demand, driven by an expanding middle class and accelerating urbanization, and further reinforced by sustained public infrastructure investment. Policy support remains a central pillar of this dynamic.

The Union Budget 2026–27 reaffirmed the government’s commitment to infrastructure development, with approximately $147bn allocated to public capital expenditure. This multi-year investment program spans railways, highways, urban development, and technological infrastructure, collectively building the infrastructure backbone of an economy in transition.

Despite ongoing energy-related disruptions weighing on industries globally, India’s industrial sector has shown continued resilience, as reflected in recent data. Industrial production expanded by 5.2% y-o-y in February, accelerating from the prior month and driven primarily by manufacturing output. Infrastructure output also rose by 2.3% y-o-y, marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion, underpinned by strong demand for construction materials such as steel and cement, buoyed by sustained urbanization trends and large-scale infrastructure investment, including the steel-intensive expansion of the national railway network.

Steel sector performance

This supportive backdrop has translated into strong performance in the steel sector. State-owned Steel Authority of India, one of the largest domestic steel-producing companies, reported record operational performance in fiscal 2025–26, marking an 11.5% increase y-o-y, and achieving its highest-ever levels of both steel production and sales.

The company also recorded a significant contribution to infrastructure, particularly through strong supplies to Indian Railways. In January–February 2026, India produced approximately 29 m tons of steel, representing a 9.7% y-o-y increase and indicating the strength of underlying demand.

Long-term steel capacity expansion

Looking ahead, the Indian government has set ambitious targets for domestic steel capacity expansion, reaching 300m tons by 2030. Current demand, driven by urbanization and infrastructure investment, combined with these long-term production targets, points to a sustained rise in the need for steel and its key inputs, coking coal and iron ore.

Coal dependence and import reliance

This demand is further reinforced by the slow pace of the green steel transition. The blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace route remains dominant in terms of both capacity and output, keeping coking coal and iron ore firmly at the centre of India’s steelmaking process. Given the poor quality of domestic coal reserves, India relies on imports for nearly 90% of its coking coal requirements, sourced predominantly through seaborne trade.

With the steelmaking sector accounting for approximately 95% of domestic coking coal consumption, India’s steel expansion ambitions are directly contingent on a stable and growing supply of imported coking coal. Within this context, the Subcontinent country is emerging as a key importer of coking coal, with seaborne volumes projected to increase by approximately 10% in 2026, reaching around 87 m tons, equivalent to nearly 30% of global seaborne coking coal imports.

Australia and Russia are the primary suppliers, accounting for more than 70% of India’s coking coal imports, while discussions with the USA earlier this year indicated a potential growth in long-haul U.S. coking coal exports to India, currently standing at approx. 10%.

Iron ore import trends

On the iron ore side, although India accounts for a relatively small share of global seaborne imports (approximately 1%), the trend is upward. Imports are projected to rise in 2026 from 9m tons to 14m tons, reflecting both expanding steel production and the need for higher-quality material to complement lower-grade domestic supply. Brazil is the leading supplier, exporting high-quality iron ore, followed by Oman and Australia.

Shipping demand outlook

Overall, India’s role in coking coal and iron ore imports is poised to increase through 2026 and beyond. Rising seaborne volumes, coupled with long-haul trade routes such as Brazil–India, are set to underpin demand for large and mid-sized bulkers, Capesize, Kamsarmax, and Ultramax vessels, through a combination of more cargoes and ton-miles. At the core of this dynamic are India’s accelerating urbanization, sustained infrastructure investment, and a structural dependence on high-quality steelmaking raw materials that domestic output cannot meet.

source : safety4sea