Piracy Analysis and Warning Weekly (Horn of Africa)

09-15 October 2009

The Piracy Analysis and Warning Weekly (PAWW) report is produced by the Piracy and Maritime Crime Team within the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).  It provides a review of incidents, assessment and outlook on the threat to merchant shipping in or near the Gulf of Aden and off the East coast of Somalia from piracy and associated maritime crime. This publication is produced primarily to inform merchant mariners and naval forces operating in and near the Horn of Africa of recent pirate activity. [i]

Advisory:

ONI assesses that vessels attacked off Somalia are randomly selected and not specifically targeted for any reason other than how easily the vessel can be boarded. Pirates simply patrol an area, wait for a target of opportunity, and attempt to board. ONI defines a high risk vessel as one that travels at a speed of less than 15 knots with low hook points. All vessels, especially vessels that fit this profile, are advised to proceed with extreme caution when transiting the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Somalia. Pirates have shown a new capability to operate in waters off the Omani coast (in the southern Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea). There have also been incidents reported in the southern Red Sea of aggressive small boat activity. Caution must be taken when transiting these waters. Pirates have achieved significant success in recent months and have shown their capability to operate for sustained periods in the Gulf of Aden and at a considerable distance (>900NM) off the coast of Somalia. Not all attacks were successful, and considerable caution is always required since the areas around failed hijackings remain at high risk for at least 48 hours after the incident. ONI releases Indications and Warning spot reports to assist mariners in avoiding these areas. It is strongly recommended that vessels transiting the region take such counter-piracy measures as: continuous anti-piracy shipboard drills, fixed barbed wire in high densities around the main deck rail and any low hook points, fixed fire hoses along the outside of the vessel- especially near potential boarding points, and consideration of employment of a pirate security team. (ONI Comment)

Executive Summary

·        There are three incidents to report in this period. In addition, there was one report of suspect activity.

·        Somali pirates are currently holding 5 merchant vessels for ransom.

·        No vessels were released this week.

Projected Risk of Attack:

Gulf of Aden: Over the next 72 hours conditions will be favorable for small boat activity in the Gulf of Aden with winds at 5-10 knots and associated wave heights of 2-5 feet. (UK Weather Online)

Indian Ocean: In the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Somalia, weather conditions continue to improve and are now considered conducive to small boat operations. Forecasts indicate wind speeds of 5-15 knots with associated wave heights of 3-8 feet. (UK Weather Online)

Piracy Events

Overview

This section provides information on threats to, and criminal action against merchant shipping in the vicinity of the Horn of Africa.

Summary of the week 09-15 October 2009

There are three incidents to report in this period. One incident of suspect activity also noted.

Hijacked Vessels:

1. INDIAN OCEAN:  Container ship (KOTA WAJAR) hijacked 15 Oct 09 at 0237 UTC while underway in position 01:33S – 054:52E, approximately 190NM north of Port Victoria, Seychelles.  Owners of the vessel received a call stating that the vessel has been attacked and hijacked.  No further information is available at this time (AFP, UKMTO).

Vessels Fired Upon: 

1. INDIAN OCEAN:  Fishing vessel (GLENAN) fired upon 10 Oct 09 at 0459 UTC, approximately 165NM north of Port Victoria, Seychelles.  Vessel reported coming under fire from two skiffs, shortly after the skiffs reportedly opened fire on the fishing vessel (DRENNEC). A security team onboard fired warning shots, forcing the skiffs to abandon the attack (AP, IMB).

2. INDIAN OCEAN:  Fishing vessel (DRENNEC) fired upon 10 Oct 09 at 0359 UTC while underway in position 02:05S – 055:58E, approximately 160NM north of Port Victoria, Seychelles.  Vessel reported coming under fire from two skiffs, one white and one blue.  A security team onboard the fishing vessel returned fire, forcing the skiffs to abandon the attack. Coast guard vessels from the nearby Seychelles archipelago pursued one of the skiffs and disabled the engine (AP, IMB).

Attempted Boarding’s:

No attempted boardings to report during this period.

Suspect Activity:

1. INDIAN OCEAN: Suspected re-fueling skiff with two attack skiffs reported to be underway in position 00:04N – 055:50E on 15 Oct 09 at 0930 UTC. (IMB)

Tabulated Data

PIRACY EVENTS

(September09)2009   (2008)Vessels Fired Upon 2             (3)  5            (7)     101     (42)Vessels Hijacked 1             (1)  2            (0)     35     (44)Attempted Boarding

*Data Set originates 22 May 2009

0             (0)

0            (1)

4      (N/A)

***Totals have been adjusted to reflect correct incident classification as new information was learned***

Incident Disposition                  

The incidents contained within this report were noted to have taken place, or reported, within the last week.  The incidents illustrated in the following map and tables are depicted as:

Attempted Boarding’s

Vessels fired upon

 Vessels hijacked

Fig 1. HOA pirate activity 09-15 October (IMB)

Forecast for Week of 16-23 October 2009

As the summer monsoon season comes to an end, weather conditions continue to improve and continue to become conducive to small boat operations in the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Somalia and in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Mariners are warned to remain vigilant in their counter-piracy measures as an increase in aggressive small boat activity is expected in the coming weeks. There is still an increased probability of pirate/small boat operations in the Gulf of Aden as weather continues to be favorable to small boat operations. Somali pirates currently hold fewer vessels for ransom than they have shown recent capacity to hold. This week, ONI assesses the risk of pirate attacks is high in the Indian Ocean with increased risks in the areas in vicinity of the Seychelles noted by the red circles on the image below. The Gulf of Aden remains a prime operating area for Somali pirates.

Likelihood of Small Boat Operations

Graphic courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office Warfighting Support Center

In the graphic above, green represents a reduced risk for small boat activity while red signifies areas with a high likelihood of small boat activity. The waters marked in yellow through red may represent an increased risk to vessels operating in the area and mariners are encouraged to maintain a strict watch at all times when transiting these high-risk waters. (ONI Comment/Naval Oceanographic Office)

Comments on the PAWW, including suggested revisions to the distribution list, should be addressed to the Piracy Cell at ONI:

POC: ENS James L. Mirance, USN

Email: jmirance@nmic.navy.mil

Phone:  (+1) 301 669 3471

Maritime Crime/Piracy Analyst

Maritime Crime/Piracy Operations Officer

Naval Intelligence Task Force – Maritime Security

Nimitz Operational Intelligence Center

Office of Naval Intelligence

4251 Suitland Road, Washington, DC 20395

POC: LT Travis Clemins

Email: tclemins@nmic.navy.mil

Phone:  (+1) 301 669 2314

Maritime Crime/Piracy Lead

Naval Intelligence Task Force – Maritime Security

Nimitz Operational Intelligence Center

Office of Naval Intelligence

4251 Suitland Road, Washington, DC 20395

The Information Cut off Date (ICOD) is 15 October 2009.