Logistics losers and winners – trucking and shipping – but the tide may turn

By Charlotte Goldstone

Road freight stakeholders are currently “the losers” in logistics – in stark contrast to their ocean counterparts, according to CEO and founder of Transport Intelligence (Ti) John Manners-Bell 

In his 2025 State of the Supply Chain and Logistics Industry outlook today, Mr Manners-Bell notes that, while “some parts of the global logistics industry are being battered by stagnating economic growth, overcapacity, and bankruptcy… others are experiencing much better fortunes”.  

In particular, he pointed to road freight and trucking versus global shipping as “good examples” of these contrasting fortunes. 

Indeed, The Loadstar has previously reported how hauliers have been plagued by high overheads, plentiful capacity, weak demand, strict environmental regulations, and a severe workforce shortage – all exacerbated by increased volatility – which has led to an all-time high for bankruptcy.  

European road freight data from Upply and Eurostat shows a direct correlation between business failures and spot rates, the latter having fallen been in decline since Q3 22. 

“During this time, the number of businesses ceasing to trade has trended upwards as underlying costs have risen making for toxic operating conditions,” said Mr Manners-Bell.  

He added that the US trucking market had also been “in a bad place” since early 2022, with 88,000 trucking operations and 8,000 freight brokers going out of business in 2023, according to the American Trucking Associations. 

That market, at least, could start to benefit from President Trump’s plans to stimulate the US economy, attempts to build up inventory by US importers and plans to repatriate illegal immigrants, many of whom work in the industry, which would “likely result in higher rates due to lower capacity”. 

Meanwhile, the ocean freight sector has “enjoyed a bumper few years” as a direct beneficiary of supply chain volatility. 

“Momentum seemed to have gone out of the industry after the boom at the end of the Covid pandemic. However, disruption to routes transiting the Red Sea… resulted in significant capacity reductions… effectively reducing the size of global fleet deployable,” explained the analyst.  

And you only have to glance at recent earnings reports from the likes of Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and Zim  – or any of the top 10 carriers  – to understand the impact reduced capacity has had on liner profits.  

But Mr Manners-Bell warned the tide could turn if traffic patterns returned to normal if the ceasefire in Gaza and President Trump’s tariffs on imports soften demand. 

“The excess capacity in the market caused by weak economic growth will impact rates and, hence, on the shipping lines’ profitability,” he concluded.  

source : theloadstar