First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Navy Ships From Syria

The Russian Navy’s base at Tartus in Syria is crucial to its support of the Assad regime, and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria now puts the base at risk. There are indications that Russia may be evacuating its naval vessels.

H I Sutton  03 Dec 2024

The Russian Navy base at Tartus in Syria appears under imminent threat as the civil war turns against the Assad regime. As the front lines draw closer, Russia is already taking precautions. Russia currently has five naval ships and a submarine based in Tartus. These comprise of two Gorskhov class frigates, one Grigorovich class frigate, two axillaries and an Improved-Kilo class submarine.

One of these vessels, the auxiliary Yelnya, was noted departing Tartus on the morning of December 2 2024, with information suggesting that some or all of the other vessels also left. This unexpected move comes several days into a sudden change in the situation in Syria’s ongoing civil war. The Assad regime, of which Russia is a key ally, is now on the back foot. Opposition forces are rapidly advancing towards the capital.

Although unconfirmed, this ship movement is considered likely to be directly related to the situation on the ground. If so it is the first visible sign that Russia is moving valuable assets out of the country. Respected naval analyst Droxford Maritime noted on X and Bluesky that “there is a realistic possibility departure is related to the worsening situation in Syria.” Yelnya is a Project 160 Altay class oiler, which is a valuable asset and important to maintaining Russia’s force in the Mediterranean. Information suggests that the submarine, frigates and another auxiliary also sailed out of Tartus.

Tartus: Russia’s Strategic Overseas Base

The naval base at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast is a strategic asset for Russia. The Russian Navy has maintained the naval base there since 1971 but it had fallen in use after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2012 usage has increased again and it became Russia’s main overseas naval base. And since the start of the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine it has taken on further significance. Russia boosted its military presence in the Tartus ahead of the invasion in order to counter and deter direct NATO involvement, particularly by aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean.

Tartus also acted as a staging base for major warships intending to join the fight in the Black Sea. As it transpired most of these, including two additional Slava class cruisers, were blocked by Türkiye from entering the Black Sea after the invasion started. They remained in the Mediterranean to offer support. Since then Russia has struggled to maintain that level of naval presence in the Mediterranean but the warships and submarine in Tartus remain key.

Outlook Not Good For Russia

It now appears possible that the port will eventually be attacked or abandoned. Certainly it appears likely that Russian warships are leaving the once safe port. It is expected that the warships will sail from the Mediterranean to the Baltic. Possibly they will seek temporary safe harbour in Algeria or Libya on the way.

If Tartus remains in Russian control then it is likely to be used for any Russian heavy reinforcements. These will take weeks to arrive however so initial movements are more likely by air. Until February 2024 Russia maintained regular ship transits to the Black Sea, nicknamed the ‘Syrian Express’. These stopped however, likely because of the increased threat of Ukrainian surface drones (USVs) in the Black Sea. Now ships have to sail around Europe to the Baltic. If Russia is desperate to reinforce Syria, or evacuate heavy equipment, it may attempt the Black Sea route again. If so, it will expose itself to Ukraine’s surface drones.

The Russian spy ship Yantar, known for loitering near undersea cables, is also in the Mediterranean. It called briefly at Algiers on November 30 and has since gone dark on AIS (automated information system location broadcasts). How the situation in Syria affects it remains to be seen.

If Russia abandons Tartus it would have geopolitical implications which are hard to predict.

source : navalnews