Why China Is Stepping Up Its Maritime Attacks on the Philippines

Why China Is Stepping Up Its Maritime Attacks on the Philippines

Beijing’s aggression threatens to disrupt friendshoring operations in the region.

By Elisabeth Braw, a columnist at Foreign Policy and a senior associate fellow at the European Leadership Network.

DECEMBER 13, 2023 Foregn Policy

On Dec. 9, China Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at Philippine supply ships in the Scarborough Shoal, where the Philippine ships had arrived to resupply fishermen. That’s just the latest skirmish in the disputed atoll, which is located near the Philippines but was seized by China in 2012. In fact, in recent months, China has markedly increased its maritime bullying in the waters off the Philippines. That trend is already beginning to spread nervousness among Western businesses interested in friendshoring some of their operations to the Philippines—which may be precisely what China is after.

The water-cannon attack on the Philippine supply ships, which resulted in one of the vessels suffering engine damage and having to be towed back to port, came only a few weeks after two other heavy-handed actions by Chinese vessels near the Philippine coast.

In late October, a Philippine supply vessel and a vessel from the Philippine Coast Guard were bumped, respectively, by a China Coast Guard vessel and a vessel belonging to China’s maritime militia. The incidents took place near the Second Thomas Shoal, in waters that both the Philippines and China consider their own. In 2016, the tribunal in charge of enforcing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sided with Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal, but that hasn’t stopped Beijing from claiming it is the rightful owner and underlining this point through various maritime provocations.

Indeed, for the past decade, there have been regular encounters between China and the Philippines in the desolate waters.

In recent months, China has been particularly keen to demonstrate its presence around the Scarborough and Second Thomas shoals. It has rammed Philippine Coast Guard vessels and boats resupplying fishermen. It has used water cannons against Philippine vessels and tried to chase them away. On just one day in November, 38 Chinese vessels were circling the Second Thomas Shoal’s waters, according to The Associated Press.

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“There has been a gradual escalation this year, which you can trace back to February, when a Chinese vessel directed [a military-grade] laser against a Philippine vessel and the Philippines made the footage public,” said Ray Powell, the director of Stanford University’s SeaLight group, which tracks maritime gray-zone aggression. “The footage got a lot of attention, which encouraged the Philippines to take pictures of other incidents that were already happening,” Powell added. “That has continued throughout the year, and now the situation has become escalatory.”

Beijing’s objective, Powell said, is to discourage any attempts by nearby countries to follow the Philippines’ example in asserting their rights to waters that China has unilaterally declared to belong to Beijing. “China wants to communicate that it has jurisdiction in the South China Sea and gets to decide over activities there,” he explained.

The aggression may be of the gray-zone kind—that is, not involving military violence—but it’s decidedly harmful, and not just to the Philippine and other vessels being targeted. “China’s harassment of civilian Philippine vessels carrying out humanitarian missions has a negative impact on shipping in the surrounding waters,” Amparo Pamela Fabe, a professor at the Philippines’ National Police College and a fellow of the U.S. Marine Corps’ Brute Krulak Center, told me. “It also heightens the geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.”

Indeed, the harassment has so alarmed the U.S. Defense Department that the U.S. military is now making a point of showing its presence off the Philippine coast, including by sending aircraft to circle above altercations between Chinese and Philippine vessels. But in reality, there isn’t much the Pentagon can do to deter the vessels from the China Coast Guard or the maritime militia off the coast of the Philippines: The United States wouldn’t risk an armed conflict with China over the harassment of Philippine vessels.

So the harassment will continue and even expand—and simply being a nuisance in the waters may be China’s whole point, because the altercations are causing considerable anxiety. “Philippine vessels cannot freely enter the area within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, and Philippine fisherfolk cannot go fishing in the area,” Fabe noted.

And the anxiety doesn’t end there. That’s because the Philippines is one of the countries to which manufacturers keen to reduce their operations in China have turned their attention.